The hottest season of textile industry is approach

The peak season of the textile industry is approaching, and the PTA Market in spring can be expected.

I. Market Review

PTA rose and fell as a whole in February. After the holiday, PTA continued its rise since January, rising to a record high of 12396 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and the short-term growth rate rose too fast. Under the influence of systemic risks, PTA made a deep correction against the trend of crude oil, closing at 11446 yuan/ton on February 25, with a monthly drop of 342 points or 2.9%, the highest 12396 points and the lowest 11244 points, due to the demand for technical correction and the pressure of long profit taking, and the central bank raised reserves again. However, the spot price was relatively strong. The closing price of 1105 contract fell by 4.79% compared with the beginning of the month. The inner spot rose by 2.71% to 11350 yuan/ton, and the outer spot rose by 3.9% to 1465 yuan/ton

Figure 1: trend chart of pta1105 contract

the figure is the trend chart of pta1105 contract. (picture source: Hongyuan futures)

II. Upstream raw materials are operating at a high level, and PTA downward space is limited

crude oil prices remain high. Light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 60 cents on Friday to close at $97.88 a barrel. Investors are still worried about the prospect of supply shortages, but oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have pledged to make up for production losses, thus limiting the upward trend of crude oil prices. Compared with the same period last year, the price of crude oil futures in New York has increased by 25%

Figure 2: PTA futures and crude oil spot price trend chart

figure shows PTA futures and crude oil spot price trend chart. (picture source: Hongyuan futures)

recently, crude oil has been at a high level, PX prices have been strong, and PTA runs counter to the trend of crude oil and PX. PTA's short-term growth rate rose too fast. Due to the demand for technical correction and the pressure of long profit taking, the central bank raised the reserve again. PTA made a deep correction against the trend of crude oil. By the end of February 25, PTA fell 342 points or 2.9%, with a maximum of 12396 points and a minimum of 11244 points, but the spot price was relatively strong. The closing price of 1105 contract fell 4.79% compared with the beginning of the month, the internal spot price rose 2.71% to 11350 yuan/ton, and the external spot price rose 3.9% to 1465 yuan/ton. The PX price rose by 2.03% at the beginning of the month, and the spot price of crude oil rose by 11.67%

with the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and the start of the spring market, PTA has limited downward space, and may rebound in March, returning to the upward trend

Figure 3: PTA futures and PX price trend chart

figure shows PTA futures and PX price trend chart. (picture source: Hongyuan futures)

III. in addition to affecting the uneven jaw, the peak season of downstream textile consumption is approaching, and PTA can rise

March has always been the peak season of the textile industry. A large number of export orders will be placed at this stage. With the good turn of labor problems, the startup rate of spinning and weaving mills will also increase. The reason is that a large number of volatile MoO3 phases are generated at this time, and some real needs will be reflected

downstream fabric sales started. Shengze silk chemical fiber index closed at 98.35 points, up 0.26 points from last week. From the trend chart of Shengze chemical fiber fabric price index, we can see that after the 15th day of the first month, Shengze market has really entered a sales state, and the flow of people and vehicles in the market has also increased sharply. In addition, the labor shortage that has plagued textile enterprises for a long time is basically coming to an end. Although many enterprises still have a certain amount of job vacancies, this has not had a great impact on the business activities of merchants. It is understood that, At present, the number of workers in Shengze textile enterprises is about 80%. With the workers gradually in place, the load index of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rose rapidly from 25 before the festival to 65. The loom load of the reference year reached a high of 70% - 80% in the middle and early April of the year. There is still room for further increase in the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the later period, and the purchasing follow-up of polyester in the later period is expected to be expanded

Figure 4: Shengze chemical fiber fabric price trend chart

the figure is Shengze chemical fiber fabric price trend chart. (picture source: Hongyuan futures)

exports continue to be in good shape. According to the latest export data released by the General Administration of customs, the cumulative export of textile and clothing in January 2011 was US $21.618 billion, an increase of 38.58% year-on-year. Among them, the textile export was 8.243 billion US dollars, an increase of 47.48% year on year; The export of clothing and accessories reached US $13.376 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.61%

Figure 5: trend chart of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load index

figure shows the trend chart of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load index. (picture source: the pollution caused by the plastic granulator process is often an important source of environmental pollution in China: Hongyuan futures)

in April and March, some PTA devices were overhauled, which supported the PTA futures price

there are still some PTA devices from South Korea, Taiwan to the mainland that are scheduled to be overhauled in turn in this month, so that the balance of PTA in partial periods will tilt towards the angle beneficial to the supplier

1. A 1.6 million ton PTA plant in South China is scheduled to be overhauled for about a week in March

2. Another supplier in South China plans to arrange a maintenance of a 600000 ton unit for about a week in April

3. A mainstream supplier in Zhejiang plans to arrange a 25 day overhaul of 600000 ton EPTA units in March, and two sets of PTA units are planned to arrange a monthly rest, with the contract reduced by half

4. A set of 800000 ton PTA plant in Ningbo will be overhauled for five days from the end of February

5. Another 600000 ton PTA plant in Ningbo will be overhauled for one month in April

6. A 1.5 million ton PTA plant in the north is planned to be shut down and expanded for about three weeks from the beginning of May

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