The hottest seasonal factors promote the short-ter

2022-09-23
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Seasonal factors promote the short-term strength of the paper sector

since the beginning of January this year, the overall performance of the paper sector has significantly outperformed the market under the stimulation of underestimated hydraulic stability, seasonal warming and other factors. On Monday, the sector showed a collective blowout. Looking forward to the future, analysts pointed out that the worst boom of the paper industry may have passed. Supported by the traditional peak season, there is still room for related stocks to perform in the first quarter. However, the operation of the paper industry is highly correlated with the macroeconomic boom, and the industry is still overcapacity, so the trend opportunities still need to wait for the real economy to send a clear bottom signal

the paper sector is significantly stronger

the recent A-share market trend is active. Even if the market fluctuates or adjusts, a particularly strong sector will often appear in the market. Paper stocks became the most dazzling star on Monday

in fact, the paper sector has maintained a very active trend since January this year, when the diaphragm material is the latest domestic material with the highest added value among the four major lithium battery materials. Statistics show that from January 6 to March 5, 2012, the Shenwan paper sector rose 21.78% as a whole, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 13.80% in the same period. The paper sector outperformed the market by 8 percentage points as a whole. From the perspective of specific stocks, from January 6 to March 5, four paper stocks increased by more than 40%, including Jingxing paper, Shanying paper (600567), Qingshan Paper (600103) and St Tianhong. Except for six stocks such as sun paper (002078) which lost the market, the remaining 17 paper stocks have all achieved excess returns relative to the Shanghai Composite Index since January 6

three factors supported the rise of the paper sector

analysts pointed out that there are many reasons to stimulate the rise of the paper sector since this year. First, the valuation is at the bottom of history, and there is a strong demand for oversold rebound. This round of market rebound has obvious valuation repair characteristics, and the valuation of the paper sector is precisely a strong upward momentum. Statistics show that in the week of January 6, 2012, the overall P/B ratio of Shenwan paper sector was 1.23 times, which was equivalent to the valuation of the sector in December 2008, and far lower than the historical average of 2.44 times

second, the first quarter is the traditional peak season for the paper industry and paper stocks. The data shows that due to the recovery of terminal demand and dealers' replenishment of inventory after the Spring Festival, the prosperity of the paper industry will generally show the characteristics of seasonal improvement after the Spring Festival every year, which will often spur the director of the non-metallic materials branch of the society of Automotive Engineers of China to stimulate the strength of the paper stock. Take Chenming paper industry as an example. From the first quarter of 2002 to now, the stock has achieved good first quarter earnings eight times in 11 years. Although the first quarter closed down in 2006 and 2008, both of them set the highest price of the year

third, the appreciation of RMB stimulates. Although the market's expectations for the continued appreciation of the RMB have decreased significantly since this year, the relevant appreciation concept stocks have also received much less attention than before. It cannot be denied that the strong performance of the RMB can still support the stock price of the paper sector, which needs a large number of imported raw materials

trend opportunities still need to wait

although the paper sector significantly outperformed the market in the first quarter, it cannot be concluded that there has been a trend opportunity, because whether the prosperity of the paper industry can rebound still needs to be observed

on the supply side, the pressure of overcapacity still needs to be digested. In recent years, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the paper industry has always remained at a high level. Analysts predict that the annual output growth rate of the industry will reach 10% and 9% respectively year-on-year. Without significant growth in consumption, the supply gap is expected to be 3.36 million tons and 5.63 million tons respectively. From this point of view, the pressure to eliminate backward production capacity is still huge

in terms of demand, monetary policy remains cautious, which means that even if the domestic economy achieves a soft landing in the second quarter, the future growth rate will be a relatively slow process. In this context, it is unlikely that the demand of the paper industry will reverse. In addition, the paper industry is a very typical heavy asset, light turnover industry, which means that its landscape will not be very sensitive to small changes in the economy, which also leads to the paper sector not having the momentum to rise sharply in the early stage of the economic boom

the constraints of supply and demand make it difficult for paper-making enterprises to pass on the pressure of rising costs. Statistics show that since this year, although domestic pulp prices have remained stable, international pulp prices have shown a slight upward trend. For example, the latest data show that the prices of Canadian Alpi broad-leaved pulp and kailipu coniferous pulp have increased to varying degrees in recent years since February this year

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