After the 18th CPC National Congress, the domestic

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After the 18th CPC National Congress, the domestic steel market tends to be stable on the whole. In November, the 18th CPC National Congress is about to be held. Steel traders pay more attention to the steel market before and after the 18th CPC National Congress, which is very different from the traditional manual experimental machine, and has become a hot spot in the field of steel trade

during this period, the domestic steel market has shown a stable and positive operating trend. In the traditional peak season of the "golden nine and silver ten" steel market, with the gradual release of downstream terminal demand, the steel market has been weak and depressed for five months, and the price has fallen all the way, with a cumulative decline of more than 500 yuan/ton. The largest is more than 100000 foam granulation machines, with a total of more than 1000 yuan/ton. After entering the bottom area, it hit the bottom and rebounded. The overall rebound, the trading situation is still good, By the end of October, the steel market all over the country was generally stable, and the price did not fluctuate much

in the interview, some steel traders believed that at present, on the eve of the 18th CPC National Congress, positive factors conducive to the smooth operation of the steel market have appeared frequently. With the implementation of a series of macro policies and measures for stable economic growth issued by the state, the effect of implementation has gradually emerged, and a number of major infrastructure construction projects of "railway, highway and infrastructure" have been started in various places. For example, the recent intensive construction of domestic railway projects, on October 18, The Golmud Dunhuang railway with a total investment of 12.9 billion yuan was officially started in Golmud; On the same day, the Jingzhou Yueyang section of the Mengxi central China coal transportation special line with a total investment of about 153.97 billion yuan was also officially broken. On October 19, Baolan passenger dedicated line (from Baoji to Lanzhou), one of the "four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed railways in China, was fully started; Tongtian Shenhua Group invested in the first batch of Inner Mongolia railway projects, including Dazhun Jitong Railway connecting line, Arong Banner Moqi railway and Hailar heihetou railway. On October 27, the Shaanxi section of Xi'an Chengdu Passenger Dedicated Line started construction, and the Sichuan section will also break ground soon. The construction of railway construction projects across the country alone has injected a strong impetus into the demand for railway steel. According to industry statistics, the demand for railway steel reached tens of millions of tons during the year

with the release of effective demand at downstream terminals and the acceleration of de stocking, there must be a good experimental environment under the steel inventory, and the sales pressure must be relieved, which is also a positive factor for the stabilization of the steel market. Statistics show that at present, the national social inventory of steel continues to decline. On October 26, the national social inventory of steel was 12.7339 million tons, 436400 tons lower than last week. Among them, the social inventory of wire rod was 1.05 million tons, down 4.17% from last week; The social inventory of rebar was 4.55 million tons, down 5.04% from last week; The social inventory of snails was 300000 tons, down 4.10% from last week; The social inventory of hot rolled coil was 3.7 million tons, down 3.54% from last week; The social inventory of cold rolled coil was 1.6 million tons, up 0.12% from last week; The social inventory of medium and heavy plate was 1.5 million tons, down 0.11% from last week. The output of steel mills is increasing and the steel inventory is declining, which shows that demand has been released, and the contradiction between supply and demand is gradually alleviated, which promotes the stable and good operation of the steel market

in addition, what is conducive to the stability of the steel market are rigid cost support and the increase of ex factory prices of steel mills to curb the decline of steel prices. Recently, the domestic market prices of iron ore, coke, scrap steel, pig iron and other steel raw materials have entered the upward channel of shock. Some raw material prices have increased strongly. For example, the market price of scrap steel generally increased by yuan/ton in October, and the price of coke also increased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of iron ore also gradually increased, and the price of steel raw materials increased, causing the production cost of steel to rise again. Under the high cost pressure, Steel mills adjusted the ex factory price of steel accordingly. For example, the ex factory price of gesture plates of a number of large steel enterprises increased in November, and the ex factory price of some cold and hot plates increased by yuan/ton. Similarly, the increase in ex factory prices of steel mills and the increase in procurement costs of steel traders have largely curbed the decline in spot market prices. Chongqing Gree air conditioner

from the perspective of demand and cost, before and after the 18th National Congress, there were many positive factors in the steel market, and the steel market price did not have the conditions to fall significantly. However, some steel traders are also more concerned about the negative factors, and are not blindly optimistic about the future market. Some operators said that at present, the biggest negative factor affecting the trend of the steel market is the blind optimism of steel plant production capacity, and the sharp increase in steel production, which leads to the re emergence of the contradiction between supply and demand. From various signs, the release of steel production capacity has increased significantly, and steel production has increased unabated. According to the latest data of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, in mid October, the average daily crude steel output of domestic key large and medium-sized enterprises was 1.6061 million tons, an increase of 1.42% month on month; It is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in China will be 1999200 tons in mid October, with a month on month increase of 4.33%. At the end of mid October, the steel inventory of domestic key large and medium-sized enterprises with good 2.5 rust performance was 11.0354 million tons, with a month on month increase of 2.46%

steel traders said that as long as the steel price rises, the output of steel mills will increase immediately. In October, the national average daily output of crude steel continued to rise, once again approaching the 2million ton mark. If the domestic average daily output of crude steel remains at the level of about 2million tons, the pressure faced by the steel market is difficult to be fundamentally relieved under the situation that the effective demand of downstream terminals has not been clearly increased, which is a major negative factor for the stable operation of domestic steel market prices in the later period, Therefore, the operators of steel trade enterprises pay general attention to it

when judging the steel market trend before and after the 18th CPC National Congress, steel traders believe that they should look at the game results of positive and negative factors to see who has the upper hand and can be slightly better. Judging from the current operation of the steel market, positive factors are slightly used for negative factors, so it is unlikely that the steel price will fluctuate sharply in the later stage, but mainly stable and slightly fluctuating

most merchants admit that the late price rise still needs the cooperation of transaction. If the steel plant resources are concentrated in the later stage, and the supply is excessive, the possibility of a slight downward price cannot be ruled out. However, as the 18th CPC National Congress is about to be held, the mentality of merchants is relatively stable, and the current steel price is mainly "maintaining stability". Therefore, it is expected that the stable operation of steel prices will be the main theme of the market in the near future

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